Diagnosing DOGE: Purge of the Probies

Who are the probationary workers that were fired? Why? And why are they being hired back?

Feb 28, 2025

I have been laid-off only once in my professional career. It was no surprise. I was a grain trader for a large Midwest cooperative and they had decided to close down the grain division. So I saw this was coming. Even so, it was not a pleasant experience. I am grateful to not have revisited that moment.

As a former federal employee I was disturbed by the decision to arbitrarily fire all federal employees that were “on probation.” The word almost sounds criminal. But it is a term used to describe new employees that are, for several weeks, under evaluation. At the end of that period of time, the supervisor will determine if that person is a good fit. I remember those days. I must point out that the US Forest Service was also on probation, from my viewpoint. I was thrilled to be hired, but I wasn’t sure if this job was a good fit for me. So a probationary period can work both ways. Needless to say, I passed the test and worked for another thirteen years for the USFS.

I couldn’t help but feel the pain when I heard that DOGE had made the decision to fire all federal employees that were on “probation.” I put this in quotes because I believe somebody at DOGE was somewhat uninformed about how the term was used in the federal government. People move around quite a bit in the USFS. Some are horizontal moves where you do the same thing but for a different division of the USFS or for a different location. Some moves are promotions and, surprise, even demotions (not everyone prefers higher grade level positions). When a person changes to a new position, they are on “probation” for a specific period of time. During that time they can choose to return to their previous position. So it is conceivable that amongst that group of employees that were on “probation” there were hundreds, if not thousands, of employees who had decades of experience.

Think what “experience” entails. For the USFS, that “experience” could have been advanced degrees in wildlife and timber management, special training in contract management and property management. Almost all were well trained in budgetary standards. All that gone by a simple decree from Washington.

So what could go wrong?

Why the Layoffs?

The elephant in the room is the massive debt of the federal government. The portion of the budget that is required to service that debt exceeds the budget for the Department of Defense! American voters are like addicts, having to take that first step of acknowledging they have a problem. Only they can fix it. They took that first step by electing Donald Trump for President.

Last I looked the government spent 1.8 trillion dollars more than they brought in for 2024. Or 37% of tax revenues! To reduce the deficit, a balanced budget will be required at minimum. To actually fix this problem sooner, the government will need to produce a surplus. So federal workers will need to take that first step to deal with this problem of layoffs --- the budget will be cut and that will mean fewer federal employees. Under the best of conditions, that would mean not replacing retired employees, a slow, progressive act of surgery. Under drastic conditions, it will mean the meat ax.

So it was that DOGE chose amputation.

So who exactly are these “probies?”

There was a time in my life when I would waste my evenings watching NCIS. As a federal employee I would often catch the peculiar details associated with being a federal employee, including the term for the new hire: “probie.”

Sean Murray, world’s most famous Probie.

Each agency has their peculiar blend of probies. DOGE soon discovered this issue when they inadvertently terminated staff that were responsible for nuclear waste and bird flu eradication. They have since discovered other peculiar situations. I can only speak about my experience with the USFS. New hires were most predominant amongst seasonal workers. These were the people you would meet at the visitor centers, the trail guides, the naturalists, and the men and women who worked on trail maintenance and other duties like trash pickup. Fire fighters were in that mix as well.

So it was that supervisors were suddenly confronted with vacancies just when the tourist season was approaching. Heaven forbid if one of your “probies” was a helicopter pilot who was going to fly the radio maintenance crews to mountaintop stations. As noted above, some of the probies were highly experienced USFS staff, some with advanced degrees. What if the probie was responsible for managing a multi-million dollar timber contract? What if the one fired was responsible for monitoring mining companies? Entire projects could be derailed. Vital functions left undone. In essence, somebody in Washington approached a problem with a meat ax when it would have been more appropriate to think this through and approach it strategically.

So Why Pick on Probies?

In my experience, one word describes why probies are targeted: benefits. When I was laid off I noticed that most all my colleagues were terminated before their three years were up. That meant that our employer was not obligated to provide a pension. For the USFS, my health benefits would only be provided once I passed the probationary period. So terminating the probationary employees had the potential of saving a lot more money in the long term.

Probies are also the victim of age discrimination. Most are young and inexperienced. They are also powerless. Few would have developed close bonds with other staff members nor gained the confidence of supervisors. They would not have been tied to federal employee unions.

But … not all probies are “new” or “inexperienced.” As noted above, the term is associated with anyone in a new position. When supervisors saw their most experienced and trained staff getting the pink slip, they understandably pushed back.

Trust the Process

The purge of the probies affected 5% of the federal workforce.¹ If a 5% reduction in the workforce was what DOGE wanted, they simply had to direct the department heads to do so. This directive would have eventually reached the supervisors and they would make the painful decision of who would have to go. Division heads and regional directors would have to prioritize who stays and who goes focusing on which programs were consistent with the mission of the agency.

As noted in a previous posting, the Executive has little trust in the bureaucracy. Thus the bypassing of agency leadership. But the supervisors are closest to the ground. That helicopter pilot may be beyond critical. The new mechanic may be indispensable. The new radio technician desperately needed.

Will this slow the process? Certainly. But it will provide some breathing space for both supervisors and the federal employees. Federal employees will at least have some time to prepare for the worst, preparing themselves and their families for what may come. Supervisors will most likely make better decisions than a distant directive from Washington.

Lessons Learned

This is part of the Lessons Learned series because what is happening in DOGE provides some difficult lessons in life. How can you prepare yourself for unfair moments such as this?

First, be aware of what is happening in the government. The mounting debt of the federal government is simply unsustainable. If I was in the private sector, I would advise you to be aware of what is happening to your employer. Read their financial reports. To balance the budget will require a 37% cut in expenditures. That’s wicked.

Second, layoffs are rarely soft landings. You hear it in the news all the time. People show up to work, are handed a termination notice, required to hand over computers and company phones, and then escorted out of the building. I was at least given some notice, we did not have computers and company phones in those days, and I was not escorted out of the building.

Third, don’t forget change management. Layoffs can be arbitrary, but if at all possible make it strategic. What was done with the termination of probationary workers was not well thought out, undercutting the fundamental mission of several agencies. Set targets and work with the leadership to achieve them.

Fourth, employment security is not a right. Be ready to change. Keep the resume current and post it on LinkedIn. I had to endure two government shutdowns and a pandemic. Working for the federal government was a nice gig, but I never had the illusion of thinking it was a sure thing. Things can change. Be ready for it.

Fifth, supervisors stand up for your staff. Many of the probies who were fired are returning because supervisors made their case.

Resources

"How many federal workers has DOGE laid off?,” The Hill, by Sierra Campbell, February 20, 2025

Photo Source: mikeweatherly.com

“What is the National Deficit?, U.S. Treasury

1Reports indicate that the recent layoffs could affect 5-10% of the workforce, depending on the agency. The reported overall objective is 10% reduction.